Gasoline prices haven’t “collapsed” under Donald Trump, despite what Scott Bessent said

During an interview on NBC’s "Meet the Press," moderator Kristen Welker asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about the possibility of retailers such as Walmart raising prices because of the Trump administration’s tariffs.

Bessent on May 18 recalled a recent phone conversation with Walmart CEO Doug McMillon. Bessent said McMillon told him "that with their consumers, the single most important thing is the gasoline price." Bessent added, "Gasoline prices have collapsed under President Trump."

Although crude oil prices have fallen during Trump’s second term, this has yet to be reflected in a significant way at the gas pump.

When Trump was sworn in Jan. 20, the national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.11. After falling to $3.06 and rising to $3.24 in the subsequent weeks, a gallon on May 12 cost $3.12, the most recent data point available from federal agencies at the time Bessent made his remark.

That’s one cent higher than it was when Trump was inaugurated — not a collapse in prices.

Two days after Bessent’s remarks, CNN reported that GasBuddy, a gasoline price tracking service, projected that prices on May 26, Memorial Day, the traditional start of the summer travel season, would be $3.08, the lowest on that holiday since 2021.

That said, much of the price decline since Memorial Day 2024 occurred under President Joe Biden. Last Memorial Day, gasoline prices averaged $3.58. By the time Biden left office, they had fallen to $3.11. That’s a 13% decrease, accounting for nearly all of the decline since Memorial Day 2024. 

The price of crude oil — the key ingredient in gasoline — has declined on Trump’s watch. It has fallen from $76.79 per barrel on Jan. 21 to $63.32 per barrel on May 12, a 17.5% decrease.

In a statement to PolitiFact, the White House said "prices are going to move up and down in the short term," but Trump’s agenda is to lower U.S. oil production costs. Doing so, the statement said, "ultimately will lead to lower average prices and at the same profitability for businesses. That’s likely averaged over a long time period."

The White House statement didn’t explain or address Bessent’s statement about gasoline prices already having collapsed. 

Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said it’s unclear why the crude oil price declines haven’t shown up for motorists at the pump.

One possibility is the "rise like a rocket, fall like a feather" theory of gasoline prices — that retail gasoline prices rise quickly if there’s a supply disruption, then fall slowly once supply gets back to normal. "Gas stations that buy expensive gasoline won't always lower their prices until they buy a new shipment of cheaper gas," Williams-Derry said.

But with crude oil sold in the global market, Williams-Derry said, many factors, including refinery capacity, play into the ultimate price for consumers. So it’s hard to know exactly why the savings from cheaper crude oil are not yet reaching consumers. 

Williams-Derry said that one of the reasons for the recent crude oil price decline is economic jitters caused by Trump’s tariffs, which some economists worry could trigger a global recession.

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U.S. Energy Department

stated on May 25, 2025 in an X post

“U.S. retail gasoline prices heading into Memorial Day weekend: 20 year low.”

"A slowdown of economic growth prospects has reduced forecasts of oil consumption," he said. 

Another, longer term trend that may be softening oil demand — and thus pushing prices down — is the growth of the electric vehicles market. "Almost half of new cars (sold) in China last year were electric, and the International Energy Agency now forecasts that one in four new cars sold globally this year will be electric," Williams-Derry said. "This ongoing and rapid shift is reducing oil demand growth globally."

Increased supply from the OPEC oil-producing companies is also shaping the global oil market, as is Trump’s renewed interest in a nuclear deal with Iran, which could bolster Iranian oil production if a deal is reached. 

Our ruling

Bessent said, "Gasoline prices have collapsed under President Trump."

Despite some wobbles, prices at the gas pump remain essentially the same as when Trump was sworn in Jan. 20, about $3.12. GasBuddy projected gas prices to fall to $3.08 per gallon by Memorial Day, but much of the post-Memorial Day 2024 decline reflected in that projection occurred on Biden’s watch.  

Crude oil prices have fallen by 17.5% since Trump took office. However, these savings have not yet passed on to consumers, although it’s plausible that they will be.

A significant reason for the decline in crude oil prices is rising fears of a global recession related to Trump’s tariff policy.

The statement contains an element of truth but ignores evidence that would give a different impression, so we rate it Mostly False.